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Tuesday, December 1, 2009

!Forecast Models Doing a Little Ying Yang!

While all the GFS models have been on a storm coming Saturday and Sunday the storm track is not certain. Also how fast the cold air will come in to the Mid-Atlantic is not for sure. If the cold air comes in quick and is here with the storm hugging the coast it is for certain we will have a snowstorm. This scenario will produce a widespread area of 3"+ of snow. This is only one scenario though. Another scenario is that the cold air holds off to come in and the storm comes up the inland Mid-Atlantic. This will just cause heavy rain with no snow. The next scenario is the storm hugs the coast ,but the cold air comes in while the precipitation is already in place. This will cause rain to change from rain to rain/snow and then to all snow accumulating a dusting to 2 inches. Finally the last scenario is that the storm tracks far off the coast and causes no precipitation at all and a few clouds with cold air. As you can tell there is much difficulty finding which scenario is going to pan out. Before we have to worry about this storm though we will have to deal with tomorrows major storm. Tomorrow a low pressure area should track up the Appalachians. This will produce very heavy rain tomorrow night with a few embedded strong thunderstorms and strong wind. With this storm rainfall amounts should range 1-3 inches. This could cause flash flooding in poor drainage areas. Also winds should range 25-40 mph with gusts to 50 mph. These winds could cause coastal flooding and a few trees and power lines down. For more updates stay tuned as I will be updating tomorrow about the stormy weather pattern.

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