Monday, November 30, 2009
Sorry for not posting lately, but there has not been very interesting weather lately. This is all going to change this week. In the middle of the week a strong storm will be moving north from the Gulf States. The storm on Thursday should move up west of the Appalachians preventing any snow from falling. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely though with this storm as we could see 1-3 inches of rain. Then once this storm moves out Arctic Air will be moving into the area. High temperatures through this weekend could be in the 40s with lows in the 20s. This will likely be the first big freeze of the year. Many of us won't like this weather as most of Delmar will be traveling up to Dover for the Division 2 State Championship to cheer on our Wildcats as they take on Hodgson. If you are one of them who don't like that weather it could get worst. There is a chance that a small piece of the storm that broke off the storm on Thursday could move up the coast forming an area of snow that will move up the East Coast from the Carolinas to New England. If this happens it could be snowing at the end of the championship game through Sunday. Snowfall amounts could be in the 1-3 inch range. This storm is not likely though and you should tune back in through the week as I get more confidence in the snowstorm.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Friday night thousands of people are going to be coming into Laurel for possibly the biggest rematch of the decade. Over five thousand fans are expected to be at the game between the Delmar and Laurel. It looks like now what I thought could be a rainy night with some snow mixing in will be a dry night with chilly temperatures in the 30s. So bundle up for the game cause it is going to be a long one. The rain though that looked like it would impact us Friday night now looks as if it will come in the form of showers on Friday morning with very little accumulation. The cold still does still look as if it is coming so stay tuned as I get more information on the wild weather.
Monday, November 23, 2009
Over the next several weeks the weather will be becoming very stormy and much cooler. The first storm in the parade of big storms for the East will be Friday into Saturday. Cold air will also be coming in at the same time. How fast the cold air arrives and where the low pressure system is will determine who gets snow. At this time it looks as if Delmar will be receiving rain and then ending and the temperatures to become much cooler with a game time temperature Friday night of around 35 degrees. Areas around the Appalachians though will receive several inches of snow. Flurries though could reach all the way to the East Coast Friday night even though it is not likely. After that the next storm will be the next weekend after next. This storm could be the I-95 snow lovers storm. It is possible that the big city will receive significant snow depending on the track of the storm. Stay tuned as I will continue to update you on the beginning of winter for the East.
Sunday, November 22, 2009
With Delmar beating Howard last night 35-28 it has set up for a rematch for Delmar and Laurel. This looks like it will be a great game with thousands of fans going out to the game. Whoever wins this game will go to the States. The weather though may not cooperate with the fans. The last three model runs have shown possible rain and snow on Friday. Where it is continuing to be consistent with saying we may see snow I am going to jump on the bandwagon and say that we can expect rain with possible snow mixed in Friday with high temperatures in the 40s and lows near 30. If snow does mix in it is likely it will not accumulate because of the mild temperatures the three days before so the ground temperature will not cooperate with accumulating snow. So stay tuned as Friday gets closer to see if the forecast will change any between now and then.
Saturday, November 21, 2009
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Scattered rain showers are falling now and should continue through tonight. This is not a big storm so there should be no more than a tenth of an inch of rain out of this system. After this we should have a storm move into our area Sunday bringing brief periods of heavy rain throughout the day. At this point there should be little wind and only around 1 inch or less of rain. Then after that we have to look at the end of next week at the possibility of an EAST COAST SNOWSTORM. Yes this is early for a coastal snowstorm, but it is one possibility coming in next week. Though not likely a storm could form off the East Coast and travel up the coast as the cold air is coming in forcing moisture into the cold air producing a possible snowstorm. If this does occur it could cause major travel disruptions on the day most Americans are shopping and returning back home from their Thanksgiving vacation. So stay tuned as we will keep you updated as the week goes on.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
These next couple of weeks could be interesting ones in the weather world. The first interesting storm is a storm expected to come up the coast Saturday-Monday. This storm could bring heavy rain and wind to the Mid-Atlantic.It all depends on the track as this could be the difference of a heavy rain and wind event or a partly cloudy day. This storm if it does produce heavy rain and wind should not be even close to the event that Ida caused. If we receive the heavy rain and wind we should expect 0.50 inch to 1.5 inches of rain and bring winds of 15-25 mph. So on the coast there will only be minor beach erosion and tidal flooding with 3-6 foot waves. After that the next story will be the possible Arctic air coming in after Thanksgiving. If the Arctic air comes in which looks likely we will have high temperatures next weekend in the mid to upper 40s and night time lows around 30 degrees. Along with this Arctic air there is a possibility of a snowstorm. At this point the snowstorm does not look likely, but it is a possibility on the table as a storm could form off the coast as the cold air comes in. This is something we will have to watch the next 9 days. So tune back in tomorrow as I will have more on these possible storms.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Today any remnant clouds or at the beaches remnant tidal flooding should be gone by this afternoon. Today should be a great day for the Delmar vs. Woodbridge game. At game time temperatures should be in the upper 60s to near 70 with sunshine appearing after it has been gone since Tuesday. This great weather should stay with us as we go through the next week. Then around Thanksgiving arctic air will be plunging into the East. This will bring the possibility of a snowstorm a day or two days after Thanksgiving. Thanksgiving is still far away so the chances of the snowstorm is slim. Stay tuned though as we get closer to Thanksgiving to see if the forecast stays the same.
Friday, November 13, 2009
The rain has stopped for now and the winds are not as strong as they were yesterday. Rain though is on its way back in the picture. Radar is picking up light to moderate rain over The Atlantic moving west towards the Delmarva. When this area of rain comes through another quarter inch of rain or more is possible and winds gusting to 40-50 mph could occur. Also the beach today is going to get hardest hit. Waves today should be around 15-20 feet with a sea level rise of 3-5 feet. These two things combined will continue to cause significant coastal flooding and major beach erosion. The past two tides have swamped the coastal areas and put them under a couple feet of water. The coastal residents though will have to survive yet another high tide tonight around 4 o'clock. So stay tuned to the blog for continuing updates on the storm.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
It is raining now and it will continue to rain until Friday night. Winds are also on an increase as the new low pressure system if forming and strengthening. This will cause winds across the Peninsula to blow 25-50 mph through the day Thurday and Thurday night. Gusts during this time could be from 40-70 mph. This is strong enough to cause structure damage and possible power outages. Rain also will continue to accumulate to possibly 3-6 inches. This could cause some flooding. So remember if you come to a road that is covered to turn around and don't drown. Also at the beaches a persistent strong wind from the ocean will cause moderate to major coastal flooding. Tides could be 2-5 feet above normal until Friday night. Also huge waves could crash on the shores causing significant beach erosion. Wave heights will be anywhere from 10-25 feet from today through Friday and possibly Saturday. If you are on a barrier island like Ocean City, Rehoboth, Assateague, or Chincoteague you may want to consider evacuating the island as this is a dangerous situation. Stay tuned to my blog as this major storm continues to pound the Mid-Atlantic.
What I have feared could happen is most likely going to happen. It has began to rain now and it should not stop till Friday. This will cause rain to begin to pile up and cause possibly major flooding. We can expect 3-5 inches of rain. Along with the rain wind will also be a big problem. Winds should increase through the day today and by tomorrow be at their strongest. Winds tomorrow could be sustained 25-40 mph with gusts close to 50-60 mph and they could be even stronger on the coast. Winds on the coast could be sustained at 35-50 mph with gust to 60-70 mph. Also coastal flooding, beach erosion and huge waves will be a problem. At this point a High Wind Warning, Coastal Flood Warning, High Surf Advisory, and Flood Watch are out in Worcester County and we can expect even more advisories come out across Delmarva today. Stay tuned as I will continue to put multiple updates up the next couple of days.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Though it does not look likely to happen there is a chance we could receive heavy rain on Friday night during the Southern Division Champions Delmar versus Woodbridge game. This night is also parent night. Parents though might not be very happy having to walk on a drenched field. Starting tonight rain and wind should begin to increase. Rain by Wednesday evening could be heavy from the central Delmarva Peninsula to South Carolina. In this area rainfall amounts could exceed 8 inches. Most likely though the Delmarva will only receive 1-3 inches of rain in a prolonged amount of time from tonight to possibly Saturday. Wind also will pick up from 5-10 mph tonight to 20-40 mph Thursday coming out of the northeast like a Nor'easter. This wind could be higher at the beaches with onshore winds 30-50 mph with gusts to hurricane force. This wind could cause damage. It also could cause major coastal flooding and beach erosion. If you know anyone who lives on the coast tell them to move there car to higher ground as a Coastal Flood Watch is out now and a Coastal Flood Warning is likely to come out. As well with the flooding and erosion waves will also be big in the 5-15 feet range. So stay tuned as we found out more about when the storm should move out.
Tropical Storm Ida has made landfall this morning with 45 mph winds and it changed to an extra tropical storm. The storm on the gulf caused gusty winds and 2-5 inches of rain with even more falling north of the coast where the rain had moved away from the center of the storm. At this point it looks as if Ida is going to take a turn to the east and go off the Georgia or South Carolina coast. The storms impacts here though first thought to be bad are going to be small with light to moderate rain and some windy conditions. This does not mean you can rule out 1-2 inches of rain and 20-30 mph. This all can change though if Ida takes a change of course than what is predicted. If the storm goes north we can still see what I was saying was possible yesterday and if the storm goes south we could just receive a few clouds. At this point though these two outcomes look unlikely. We just have to pay attention right now as we'll get more information as the day goes on.
Monday, November 9, 2009
By tonight Tropical storm Ida should make landfall as a moderately strong tropical storm. The wind is not the main impact of this storm it is the flooding of the already drenched south. Areas on the Gulf Coast up to Atlanta could receive 3-9 inches of rain. After this the storm gets difficult at predicting ,but at this point it seems as if the storm will spread some rain and wind up to the Mid-Atlantic with a new low forming off the North Carolina coast forming some beach erosion and flooding. If it turns out this way winds could be sustained 15-25 mph with 1-2 inches of rain. There is a worse scenario though with the storm staying strong and then strengthening even more up near the Mid-Atlantic. This would cause 3-6 inches of rain with 30-50 mph sustained winds with gust to 60-70 mph. Beach erosion, coastal flooding, and waves to 10 feet would be a major problem if this scenario plays out. At this point we will just have to continue to keep a close eye on the storm.
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Most forecast models are pretty much in similarity for the next 24 hours. After this the models go crazy and there is a wide range of possibilities for the storm. For the strength some models have Hurricane Ida being a tropical storm at landfall while another model has it making landfall as a Category 3 hurricane and staying at Category 1 strength if it goes on a track that takes it up to Virginia. Also there is a wide range of tracks for the storm. The storm curving back out in the Gulf is a possibility, the storm going into and across Florida is another possibility, the storm going up to the Mid-Atlantic is also a possibility, and the storm going up towards Canada is another track possibility. The worst case scenario though for the Delmarva area is it going up to just off the Mid-Atlantic. This could give the beaches major beach erosion, coastal flooding, and very high surf. Also several inches of rain with 60-80 mph gust is possible. If this scenario works out the Appalachians will also be slammed with 1-2 feet of heavy wet snow. We will just have to pay close attention right now to this dangerous storm.
Some computer models are beginning to show Hurricane Ida hit Louisiana and the remnants move up the coast. When the remnants move up the coast moisture will be pulled in and expand the rain area. By Wednesday rain could begin to fall and it might continue to fall for several days. The 06z gfs shows an area of rain impacting the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday then stalling out and continuing to produce heavy rain and strong winds Friday. The estimated rainfalls on the 06z gfs shows 8-10 inches in the middle Delmarva Peninsula and the Mid-Atlantic as a whole receiving anywhere from 1-10 inches in a widespread area. This could cause a serious flooding problem if this is the way the storm plays out. Along with the heavy rain winds of 40-60 mph could impact the coastal regions. Coastal flooding, rip currents, and beach erosion could be a major problem, too. Stay tuned for my blog as I get more information on the storm and as the week progresses.
Saturday, November 7, 2009
It may be November but the tropical Atlantic is still live and going. In the past couple days a storm in the Carribean formed off the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras and quickly gained strength and hit the coast there as a hurricane producing gusty winds and substantial rain. This morning this storm moved back off the coast into the Carribean and has strengthened to near hurricane strength with 70mph winds. The storm is moving north at 9mph and could gain more strength causing it to become a hurricane again as it continues to move north in a path that goes in the Gulf and gives the storm no where to go ,but into one of the southern states. Residents from Louisiana to Florida could have to deal with flooding and strong winds by the middle of the week by a weak tropical storm as when it gets far north in the Gulf the storm should begin to weaken from wind shear. So if you have family down in the Gulf states you may want to call them and tell them to pay close attention to the tropics.
After the cold morning this morning where it reached 30 degrees fahrenheit it has began to warm up and should continue to do so throughout the next couple of days. Today the high temperature was 60 degrees and tomorrow the temperature could go even higher. Some areas around the Delmarva could reach 70 degrees. This is unseasonable for the beginning to middle of November. Seasonal averages though should come back at the end of the week with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.